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12-team field

NCAA Football

Playoff picture

If the season ended today: 12 teams, the top 4 seeds get byes, and seeds 5 to 8 host first-round games.

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How the field is chosen

  • The field has 12 teams. The champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC get automatic bids. The highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt also gets one, whether or not it is a champion. Notre Dame gets one if it is ranked in the top 12. The remaining spots go to the next highest-ranked teams: seven in all when Notre Dame is not in the top 12, six when it is.
  • Teams are seeded 1 to 12 by rank. Seeds 1 to 4 get a first-round bye. Seeds 5 to 8 host first-round games against seeds 12 to 9.
  • The first-round winners meet seeds 4, 3, 2 and 1 in the quarterfinals, then the bracket runs to a title game.

The field below is "if the season ended today": current conference leaders stand in for champions and KickTip's rating rank stands in for the selection committee. It is a model view, not the committee's ranking. Automatic qualifiers ranked outside the top 12 are seeded after the at-large teams, and only the four highest seeds get byes. Sources: the College Football Playoff's Jan. 23, 2026 format announcement (12 teams, byes, home first-round games); for the automatic-bid breakdown, its Aug. 6, 2026 announcement and NCAA.com's explainer.

Bracket if the season ended today

Team, conference and league logos courtesy of ESPN

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First round

  1. No. 5 hosts No. 12

    5
    12

  2. No. 8 hosts No. 9

    8
    9

  3. No. 6 hosts No. 11

    6
    11

  4. No. 7 hosts No. 10

    7
    10

Quarterfinals

  1. No. 4 vs No. 5/12 winner

    4
    Winner of No. 5 vs No. 12

  2. No. 1 vs No. 8/9 winner

    1
    Winner of No. 8 vs No. 9

  3. No. 3 vs No. 6/11 winner

    3
    Winner of No. 6 vs No. 11

  4. No. 2 vs No. 7/10 winner

    2
    Winner of No. 7 vs No. 10

Semifinals

  1. Semifinal A

    Winner of the No. 4 quarterfinal
    Winner of the No. 1 quarterfinal

  2. Semifinal B

    Winner of the No. 3 quarterfinal
    Winner of the No. 2 quarterfinal

Championship

  1. National championship

    Winner of semifinal A
    Winner of semifinal B

Seeds are 1 to 12 by rank. The higher seed hosts in the first round and byes go to seeds 1 to 4. Quarterfinals: 1 plays the 8/9 winner, 2 plays the 7/10 winner, 3 plays the 6/11 winner, 4 plays the 5/12 winner. The bracket is not reseeded. The percentages are each team's chance to make the 12 over 10,000 simulated seasons (model), not the chance of winning a game. KickTip does not publish playoff-game probabilities. The full field is in the table below.

The field

Swipe the table sideways →

SeedTeamConferencePath

Chances to make the 12

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#TeamConferenceMake the 12modelFirst-round byemodelReach title gamemodelWin conferencemodel

Top 25 teams by chance to make the 12. Chances come from 10,000 simulated seasons (model).

Sources and last updated (MT)

Schedules and results: ESPN public data. Chances, win probabilities and model line: KickTip model, 10,000 simulated seasons. Market consensus: median of listed point spreads, rounded to 0.5, via The Odds API, as of Oct 23, 2026, 10:15 PM MT; only games with a posted line show one.

Model last updated: Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 6:47 AM MT. Rules: official conference tiebreaker policies (links on each conference page). KickTip is not a betting site.