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Conference

Mountain West race

10 teams. The top two in conference play meet in the title game. Chances come from 10,000 simulated seasons.

All 11 conferences

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Predictions are for information only, not betting advice.Full disclaimerHow we make the numbers

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Standings

Team, conference and league logos courtesy of ESPN

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#TeamConfOverallReach title gamemodelWin conferencemodelMake the 12model
1New Mexico2-05-1LockedLockedLocked
2Wyoming4-15-3LockedLockedLocked
3North Dakota State3-16-1LockedLockedLocked
4San José State2-14-3LockedLockedLocked
5UNLV2-14-3LockedLockedLocked
6Air Force3-25-2LockedLockedLocked
7Nevada1-22-4LockedLockedLocked
8Hawai'i0-41-6LockedLockedLocked
9UTEP0-31-6LockedLockedLocked
10Northern Illinois0-20-6LockedLockedLocked

Listed by conference win percentage, then conference wins, then overall record, then name. Official tiebreakers are applied inside the simulation, not in this table. Chances: share of 10,000 simulated seasons (model).

Remaining conference games

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Date (MT)GameWin probabilitymodelModel lineKickTip analysisMarket consensusThe Odds API, as of Oct 23, 10:15 PM MT
Sat Oct 24, 1:30 PM MTHawai'iatNorthern IllinoisLockedLockedLocked
Sat Oct 24, 3:00 PM MTSan José StateatNevadaLockedLockedLocked
Sat Oct 24, 8:00 PM MTNorth Dakota StateatNew MexicoLockedLockedLocked
Sat Oct 31, 1:30 PM MTUTEPatNorth Dakota StateLockedLockedLocked
Sat Oct 31, 2:00 PM MTNew MexicoatSan José StateLockedLockedLocked
Sat Oct 31, 8:30 PM MTNorthern IllinoisatUNLVLockedLockedLocked
Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM MTNew MexicoatNevadaLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 7, time TBAHawai'iatUTEPLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 7, time TBANorthern IllinoisatSan José StateLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 7, 8:30 PM MTWyomingatUNLVLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 14, time TBANevadaatNorthern IllinoisLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 14, time TBAWyomingatUTEPLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM MTSan José StateatAir ForceLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 14, 5:30 PM MTUNLVatNew MexicoLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 14, 9:59 PM MTNorth Dakota StateatHawai'iLockedLockedLocked
Fri Nov 20, 6:00 PM MTUTEPatAir ForceLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 21, time TBAHawai'iatNevadaLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 21, 2:00 PM MTNorthern IllinoisatNorth Dakota StateLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 21, 5:00 PM MTUNLVatSan José StateLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 21, 7:00 PM MTNew MexicoatWyomingLockedLockedLocked
Fri Nov 27, 1:30 PM MTNorth Dakota StateatSan José StateLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 28, time TBAUTEPatNorthern IllinoisLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 28, 2:30 PM MTAir ForceatNew MexicoLockedLockedLocked
Sat Nov 28, 7:00 PM MTNevadaatUNLVLockedLockedLocked

How to read the lines. Each line names the favored team and the number of points, shown with a minus sign: the team named is the favorite. The model line is KickTip analysis, not a market line, and the market consensus is shown only where at least two books list a line. The two can differ a lot: right now the biggest gap between a model line and its market line is 19.5 points, which usually means our rating and the market disagree about a team. Information only.

Recent results

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Date (MT)GameResult
Fri Oct 23Air Force at WyomingFinal · Wyoming 28, Air Force 14
Sat Oct 17New Mexico at Hawai'iFinal · New Mexico 21, Hawai'i 10
Sat Oct 17San José State at UTEPFinal · San José State 24, UTEP 11
Sat Oct 17Nevada at North Dakota StateFinal · North Dakota State 31, Nevada 17
Sat Oct 17Northern Illinois at WyomingFinal · Wyoming 41, Northern Illinois 23
Sat Oct 17UNLV at Air ForceFinal · Air Force 41, UNLV 31
Sat Oct 10Air Force at Northern IllinoisFinal · Air Force 28, Northern Illinois 7
Sat Oct 10Nevada at UTEPFinal · Nevada 30, UTEP 13
Sat Oct 10North Dakota State at UNLVFinal · UNLV 13, North Dakota State 7
Fri Oct 9Wyoming at San José StateFinal · Wyoming 16, San José State 13
Sat Oct 3San José State at Hawai'iFinal · San José State 20, Hawai'i 16
Sat Oct 3UTEP at New MexicoFinal · New Mexico 61, UTEP 7
Sat Oct 3Wyoming at North Dakota StateFinal · North Dakota State 28, Wyoming 0
Sat Sep 26Air Force at NevadaFinal · Air Force 36, Nevada 33
Sat Sep 26Hawai'i at WyomingFinal · Wyoming 27, Hawai'i 10
Sat Sep 12North Dakota State at Air ForceFinal · North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32
Sat Sep 5UNLV at Hawai'iFinal · UNLV 21, Hawai'i 6

Final scores from ESPN public data, last checked Oct 24, 2026, 6:47 AM MT.

Title game

Fri, Dec 4, 2026, 9:00 PM ET (7:00 PM MT), FOX, at the higher seed

Time, TV and site are as announced by the conference.

Who controls their destiny

  • Locked

Chance to reach the title game if the team wins all of its remaining conference games (model).

How Mountain West ties are broken

When two teams finish tied in conference play, Mountain West applies these steps in order until one team is ahead:

  1. Head-to-head result between the two teams
  2. Ranking-based step (CFP rank, computer composite or similar): KickTip uses its rating as a stand-in
  3. Overall win percentage
  4. Record against the highest-placed opponent in the standings, then the next, and so on
  5. Record against all common conference opponents
  6. Random draw (coin toss)

Ties among three or more teams use a similar list, starting with results among the tied teams. This is a plain-English summary of the official policy; the official text controls.

Known limitations

  • The CFP-ranking and computer composite step is replaced by KickTip's rating.
  • 'Overall win percentage' counts at most one FCS win.
  • We could not find the Mountain West's own tiebreaker page, so the steps follow a published report of the conference's rules.

Rules sources

  • themw.com official source (title game time and TV)
  • si.com published report (published report of the conference's rules, Nov. 2025)

Sources and last updated (MT)

Schedules and results: ESPN public data. Chances, win probabilities and model line: KickTip model, 10,000 simulated seasons. Market consensus: median of listed point spreads, rounded to 0.5, via The Odds API, as of Oct 23, 2026, 10:15 PM MT; only games with a posted line show one.

Model last updated: Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 6:47 AM MT. Rules: official conference tiebreaker policies (links on each conference page). KickTip is not a betting site.